Population Statistics and Growth Modelling

Population growth has been occurring throughout the Selwyn district, but the lion's share is in the 'commuter belt', close to Christchurch, and is addressed by the Greater Christchurch Partnership. This high-growth area includes West Melton, Rolleston, Lincoln, Springston, Prebbleton, Tai Tapu and many rural "lifestyle blocks".

Stats NZ has good population statistics, including Population Estimates and Population and Household Projections.

Growth Modelling

The Council has been maintaining a Growth Model to predict future residential and business development across the district. Growth modelling helps us plan to ensure there is sufficient infrastructure and zoned land in the right location at the right time.

Our Growth Model spatially identifies capacity by analysing a variety of data and making assumptions around the type of new development needed.

Growth Model Data inputs

The following data is used as an input into our Growth Model:

Groth Model Assumptions

The following report by Formative  [PDF, 1214 KB] outlines the modelling process we follow. The assumptions made in our Growth Model are:

  • The Site sizes that relate to what the District Plan enables (e.g. Plan-enabled) and what could be reasonably expected to be realised, which is based on recent subdivision consent and market expectations.
  • The Profit margins for feasibility calculation
  • The Population and household projection assumptions
  • The Dwelling utilisation
  • What sites to include as developable urban land and property (e.g. not council owned)
  • The Long-term changes in construction costs and house sales price


The following spreadsheet [PDF, 145 KB] and report contains the outputs of the model following the update in February 2023.

If you have any questions please contact the Duty Planner on Phone 0800 SELWYN (735 996) or email contactus@selwyn.govt.nz